In one of his interviews, Donald Trump declared that he is capable of "dividing" China and Russia.
The publication Foreign Affairs has analyzed how feasible such a strategy by Donald Trump might be.
During his speeches, the presidential candidate has repeatedly stated his intention to take a tougher stance on China compared to his predecessor, Joe Biden. However, a clear mechanism for breaking the China-Russia partnership seems yet to be defined.
Experts suggest that Trump may attempt to ease tensions with Moscow to use it as leverage against Beijing. This approach resembles the tactics from 50 years ago when the U.S. sought to exploit the Sino-Soviet split to weaken the USSR. However, this strategy faces numerous challenges, as the relationship between China and Russia is currently much stronger.
Russia is significantly dependent on China: in the past two years, 40% of Russian imports and 30% of exports have gone to China. This economic interdependence is growing, complicating any attempts to fracture the alliance. Furthermore, while Putin may hope that Trump will reduce support for Ukraine, there are concerns in Beijing that a new U.S. administration could intensify economic pressure on China and rekindle security confrontations.
However, even if Trump genuinely tries to split the alliance between Russia and China, it does not mean that the Kremlin will easily abandon its close ties with Beijing. On the contrary, both Putin and Xi Jinping have shared interests in strengthening their positions on the international stage, particularly in countering U.S. influence. They both aim to ensure stability within their regimes as tensions in international relations rise.
Source: foreignaffairs.