The only way to force the Kremlin to negotiate an end to the war is to make it clear to Putin that he cannot win.
According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mark Champion, the more Western support strengthens Ukraine's position on the battlefield, the quicker Russia will realize that continuing the fighting will lead to unfavorable outcomes for them. Only the recognition of the impossibility of victory will serve as a genuine incentive for the Kremlin to engage in negotiations. Champion states that even easing oil sanctions will not compel Putin to make concessions without a stronger position from Ukraine.
The new foreign policy leadership in the U.S., as the journalist believes, is beginning to recognize the importance of this approach. Instead of expecting a quick peace, they are likely to reassess their strategies and prepare for a prolonged struggle, which will increase costs for Russia and draw it into the negotiation process. However, at the same time, if Trump is less committed to defending Ukraine, this is expected to reduce the Kremlin's motivation to pursue peace talks.
"Meeting with Putin or proposing to lift sanctions are not meaningless steps, no. But by themselves, they would be like what Trump encountered during his meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un at the summit in Singapore during his first presidential term. Like Kim, Putin would simply pocket any concessions as free gifts and move on," the columnist explains.
Champion highlights the importance of providing Ukraine with high-quality weapons and military assistance to strengthen its defensive lines. Bolstering the Ukrainian army and regaining the initiative on the battlefield should be key factors that compel Putin to agree to genuine negotiations to end the war.
Source: bloomberg.