Are the Ukrainian Armed Forces advancing again? What’s happening in the Kursk region five months into the operation? (Maps included)
Five months after the start of the operation, the Ukrainian Defense Forces intensified military actions in the Kursk region, launching unexpected attacks against the enemy on multiple fronts. The Russians claim there is a so-called "new offensive" by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the region, while Ukrainian officials are largely silent on the situation.
What is currently known about the situation in the Kursk direction and what objectives the AFU might have—this information has been compiled by RBK-Ukraine in the material below.
Contents
- New Offensive by the AFU? What is Happening in the Kursk Region
- What is Known from Official Statements
- What Could be Ukraine's Objectives: Expert Opinions
New Offensive by the AFU? What is Happening in the Kursk Region
On January 5, the so-called Russian war correspondents were the first to report about an alleged "major offensive" by Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region. They claimed that the AFU concentrated their main efforts on the settlements of Berdin and Bolshoye Soldatskoye, located north of Sudzha, approximately 20 and 25 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, respectively.
According to publications from "Z-channels," the offensive involved mechanized columns. The Russians also reported attacks in two other areas—near the border south of the village of Glushkovo and in the area of the second AFU-controlled bulge in the southwest of the region (near Tetkino).
Photo: Analysts report that Ukrainian troops conducted attacks on three fronts in the Kursk region (radiosvoboda.org)
The Russian Ministry of Defense referred to the actions of the Ukrainian army as a "counterattack," claiming that the assault group of the AFU that executed the counterattack was allegedly "defeated."
OSINT analyst with the nickname Def Mon analyzed that Ukrainian forces managed to advance 2.7 km into Russian territory on the first day of the new offensive. However, it remains unclear whether Ukraine was able to secure its positions.
Photo: It is likely that Ukrainian forces advanced 2.7 km into the RF (x.com/DefMon3)
Meanwhile, the American Institute for the Study of War, while publishing a map, indicates that Ukrainian fighters have achieved tactical successes.
Geolocation footage published on January 5 and 6 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced in the southern part of Berdin, the central area of Russkoye Porechye, and the central part of Novosotnitskoye (all these areas are located northeast of Sudzha).
Photo: According to ISW analysts, the AFU's offensive in the Kursk region continues, and Ukraine has tactical successes (understandingwar.org)
Additionally, according to ISW's analysis, on Sunday, Ukraine intensified its offensive in at least two more areas of the main bulge in the Kursk region: in the areas of Nikolskoye and Alexandria (north of Malaya Loknya) and north of Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha).
On January 5, the Ukrainian project DeepState reported that alongside the offensive actions of the Defense Forces, the enemy is conducting an offensive on Malaya Loknya, Sverdlikovo, and Leonidovka. The following day, analysts updated the combat map for the Kursk region.
Photo: The frontline may have shifted towards the hamlet of Berdin (deepstatemap.live)
According to their data, the frontline and "grey zone" have shifted towards Berdin by approximately 3 kilometers. However, the territory remains disputed, without confirmed Ukrainian control.
The Ukrainian side traditionally comments on the actions of the AFU with restraint. However, if we look at the reports from the AFU General Staff, most of the combat encounters over the course of a day are taking place in the Kursk region. For instance, on January 6, out of 218 combat encounters on all fronts, 94 occurred specifically in this direction.
Therefore, it is evident that the dynamics of combat actions in the Kursk region are the highest, notes Vladislav Seleznev, a former spokesperson for the AFU General Staff and military expert, in a commentary to RBK-Ukraine.
What is Known from Official Statements
According to Andrey Kovalенко, head of the Center for Counteracting Disinformation, there are "great concerns among the Russians in the Kursk region, as they have been attacked on several fronts, which came as a surprise to them."
Against the backdrop of reports from the Kursk region on January 5, Andrey Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, published a message that likely hinted at the AFU's activation there.
"Kursk region, good news, Russia is getting what it deserves," he wrote on his Telegram channel.
Meanwhile, Ruslan Muzychuk, spokesperson for the National Guard, stated during a telethon that the Kursk operation of the AFU and other units "is aimed at creating unfavorable conditions for the enemy forces stationed in this direction and disrupting their logistics."
According to him, this has an effect not only in northern Kharkiv or along the border with Sumy region, but also in other areas of the front. Because the enemy has been forced to redeploy its units from southern directions since the beginning, as well as from other directions to reinforce their groupings specifically in the Kursk region.
"And now we see the activity of our Armed Forces. It is aimed at holding this section, maintaining the initiative here," Muzychuk adds.
What Could be Ukraine's Objectives: Expert Opinions
Russian war correspondents have complained that the alleged "goal of the AFU's offensive is Kursk and the nuclear power plant near the city of Kurchatov." However, it should be noted that back in late October, President Vladimir Zelensky stated that Ukraine could capture the Kursk nuclear power plant, but has never wanted to do so.
In the opinion of expert Seleznev, the city of Kursk is not the target of the Ukrainian forces.
"From time to time, some Russian individuals hint at this. But for now, it is impossible. Because to accomplish this task, several hundred thousand personnel would be needed. It is clear that we do not have such resources in the Kursk region. Therefore, I believe it is not worth discussing the likelihood of moving towards Kursk or even the Kursk nuclear power plant," Seleznev explained.
Military expert, former SBU employee Ivan Stupak speculated in a comment to the RBK-Ukraine YouTube channel that the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has two objectives: 30% military and 70% political.
Regarding the military component, Stupak stated that this could be another attempt by Ukraine to divert Russian attention from eastern Ukraine, compelling them to partially withdraw their forces from Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo and move them to Kursk. In other words, to create another significant point of tension.
"The 70% political component is to remind once again that we can do this, to demonstrate that the Russian government is weak. Perhaps this is also an attempt to create tension in Russian society, leading to a certain number of internally displaced persons," Stupak suggests.
Notably, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently highlighted the importance of Ukraine's position in the Kursk region for future negotiations.
"Their position in Kursk is significant because it will certainly be taken into account in any negotiations that may take place next year," he emphasized.
Political scientist Igor Reiterovich does not rule out that the situation in the Kursk region holds certain prospects for Donald Trump. Since, in reality, the elected U.S. president could offer Russia something for "bargaining."
"For example, 'Look, Ukraine will make a gesture of goodwill, withdrawing from the Kursk region, but we want to hear and see a gesture of goodwill from you as well. I give you this, but what do you give me, what do you give to Ukraine?' This is Trump's logic. It's very simple. And that’s why they might currently be refraining from such comments," Reiterovich said in a comment to the RBK-Ukraine YouTube channel.
Let us remind you that the AFU operation in the Kursk region began on August 6 of last year. Since then, the Russians have been trying to regain control over the region. According to sources from RBK-Ukraine, the