Developing economies will face challenges over the next 25 years, as global growth is expected to be too slow to improve living standards, while a climate of high political uncertainty will hinder investments from developed nations into poorer countries.
This is reported by RBK-Ukraine citing the Global Economic Prospects of the World Bank.
The long-term growth outlook for developing economies is the weakest since the beginning of this century, with too few countries expected to rise from low-income status to middle-income status over the next 25 years.
"Developing economies that were narrowing the income gap with the richest economies at the start of the century are now, for the most part, falling further behind," said World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill.
Global economic growth is projected to be 2.7% in 2025-2026. This forecast remains unchanged from the previous estimate in June. This figure is below the pre-Covid-19 average of 3.1% and is insufficient to help poorer countries catch up with wealthier ones.
Most developing countries are grappling with issues such as weak investment and productivity growth, aging populations, and environmental crises, the bank stated. The global economy is facing additional challenges due to shifts in trade policy and geopolitical tensions.
The war in Ukraine since 2022 and Israel's conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah over the past year have impacted the global economy, causing disruptions in goods supply and supply chains, while rising competition between the U.S. and China has created tensions in global trade. Meanwhile, elected U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to impose a series of tariffs, threatening to overturn trade models and potentially trigger inflation.
The bank noted in its report that developing economies and emerging market countries—including China, India, and Brazil—contributed about 60% of global growth since 2000, which is double their share in the 1990s. However, they now face external threats from protectionist measures and geopolitical fragmentation, as well as obstacles to implementing structural reforms.
At the same time, the pace of progress for low-income countries (with a gross national income per capita of about $3 per day) has slowed. While 39 countries have grown since 2000, 26 remain stagnant due to weak growth, violence and conflict, as well as intensifying climate change impacts.
"Developing economies should not harbor illusions about the challenges ahead: the next 25 years will be a tougher test than the previous 25," Gill wrote.
Recall that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the world risks becoming mired in low growth and high levels of debt. As a result, governments will have fewer resources to improve opportunities for their populations and address pressing issues.