All systems go. How Trump initiated mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and the response from Latin America.
Donald Trump has initiated mass deportations of illegal migrants from the United States back to their countries of origin. This involves thousands of individuals, with the U.S. president planning to increase that number to millions.
RBC-Ukraine discusses how this has created tension in relations between the U.S. and Latin America, as well as how countries in the region are responding to Trump's actions.
CONTENTS
In the early days of his presidency, Donald Trump soured relations between the U.S. and several Latin American countries. The main reason – the immigration issue. During his election campaign, Trump claimed that he would begin mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Most of these individuals entered the U.S. from countries in the region, and now they are being deported back by the thousands.
How many illegal immigrants are being deported from the U.S.
On his first day in office, Trump declared a state of emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border and sent troops there. Mass arrests began across the country. At least in the initial phase of this large-scale operation, law enforcement is arresting illegal immigrants accused of crimes. However, according to numerous statements from Trump, in the long term, all illegal migrants – potentially millions of people – could be subject to deportation.
Previously, officials were allowed to apply expedited deportations only to those migrants who were apprehended within 100 miles (160 kilometers) of the border. However, with Trump's arrival, a number of internal instructions from the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) were changed. Now, deportation is possible for those apprehended anywhere in the U.S. who cannot prove that they have applied for asylum and have been in the U.S. for less than two years.
According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, 5,096 people were detained between January 23-30. The Washington Post reports that agents were advised to plan for 1,200 to 1,500 arrests daily. Most of those arrested are immediately deported using military aircraft.
Who and how is receiving the deported individuals
Some countries have begun accepting their deported citizens and those from third countries without reservations. In El Salvador, the populist president Nayib Bukele, ideologically aligned with Trump, is willing to cooperate with the U.S. Guatemala and Honduras are accepting deportees for self-serving reasons, hoping to maintain financial aid from the U.S.
Negotiations have also taken place regarding the reception of illegal immigrants with Venezuela, which has been politically isolated in recent years. The country has preliminarily agreed to accept its citizens, including members of the "Tren de Aragua" cartel. Venezuela has also released six American hostages it had been holding, likely in exchange for a relaxation of sanctions.
There are also those opposed to accepting illegal immigrants. Colombia, the closest U.S. ally in the region, refused to accept planes on January 26. In response, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. from Colombia, increased customs and border checks on Colombian citizens and goods, and sanctions against several Colombian politicians. Colombian President Gustavo Petro capitulated within hours and agreed to accept migrants.
Despite the blow to his reputation, he took this step because Colombia is economically dependent on the U.S. – about 30% of its exports go to the States, while trade with Colombia constitutes a negligible portion of U.S. trade.
Trump is being more cautious in his approach towards Mexico, even though the majority of illegal migrants to the U.S. come from there. Mexico, like Colombia, refused to accept planes carrying deportees. The economies of the U.S. and Mexico are very closely intertwined, with trade between them amounting to about $900 billion.
Both countries, along with Canada, are part of the USMCA free trade zone (named after the initials of the countries).
Mexico is open to deporting its citizens. "When it comes to repatriation, we will always welcome Mexicans back on our territory," – stated the country's Foreign Ministry.
However, Mexico refuses to accept migrants from third countries with which the U.S. has no bilateral relations: Nicaragua and Cuba. There have already been instances where American planes carrying such illegal immigrants were denied landing in Mexico.
In the context of migrants, the U.S. faces the most problematic issues with Mexico. Drug cartels operate within the country, smuggling illegal immigrants into the U.S. Trump has labeled them as international terrorist organizations. This allows for quicker imposition of sanctions, but in the foreseeable future, it may escalate to the physical destruction of the cartels by U.S. forces or missile strikes on Mexican territory.
Furthermore, the U.S. has announced the revival of the "Remain in Mexico" program, which forced asylum seekers from other countries to wait in Mexico while their cases were processed in the United States. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated that such a move would require her country's consent, which she has not granted.
On top of this, Trump desires to reduce the trade deficit with Mexico. Specifically, on February 1, the U.S. president imposed an additional 25% tariff on Mexican goods.
Will there be a collective response from Latin America
The majority of Latin American leaders – stand with Colombia. This is partly due to the fact that the U.S. has a poor image in the region due to numerous armed interventions in the past.
The Financial Times notes that there is a suffocating atmosphere in Latin American embassies in Washington. A senior diplomat from the region told the publication that it feels as though "we have returned to 1897 and the era of President (U.S.) McKinley, who invaded Cuba and the Philippines."
Openly supporting the Colombian president are allies of China and Russia – namely Cuba and Venezuela, but other countries are more cautious. If Trump is willing to impose sanctions and tariffs even against the closest ally, then less allied countries may face even harsher actions.
Following the incident with Colombia, Honduras convened an urgent summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), but later canceled the meeting. No powerful regional leader, aside from the Colombian president, confirmed their attendance.
In the migrant situation, the initiative currently lies squarely with the U.S. Donald Trump faces no obstacles in making vigorous and swift decisions. Meanwhile, the countries in the region – are in a weak position. Each of them will likely attempt to negotiate with Trump separately. At the same time, the issue of migrants is not the only concern for the U.S. in Latin America. Far more conflicts could arise when Trump turns his attention to reducing China's significant influence in the region.
This material was written using publications from Forbes, The Washington Post, Financial Times, and statistics from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.