The National Bank of Ukraine assessed the likelihood of a swift end to active combat operations in the country.

The imminent end of active hostilities in Ukraine is unlikely, with an assessment of less than 15%. However, there are significant risks of escalating conflicts and further destruction of production capacities.

This information is reported by RBK-Ukraine referencing the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank of Ukraine (January 2025).

"At the same time, there is a possibility that the efforts of the international community aimed at reaching agreements for a fair and lasting peace for Ukraine will be realized in the near future," the NBU added.

The NBU does not provide forecasts regarding the duration of the war but assesses the risks to the economy. For the first time, the risks in the NBU forecast include the chances of a quicker end to hostilities.

bank.gov.ua

The central bank assesses the likelihood of a rapid implementation of a large-scale recovery plan for Ukraine as low (less than 15%). The same low probability applies to the quick restoration of damaged infrastructure and acceleration of Euro-integration processes.

Conversely, the likelihood of the following processes is regarded as high (25-50%):

• Increased geopolitical polarization among countries and, consequently, fragmentation of global trade,
• Escalation of hostilities and further destruction of production capacities,
• Greater shortages of electricity due to additional damage to energy infrastructure,
• Emergence of additional budgetary needs.

"The NBU anticipates a gradual normalization of the economic functioning conditions over the forecast horizon; however, the key risk in the forecast remains the course of the full-scale war," the Inflation Report states.

As noted in the document, the intensity and scale of the war, along with the associated losses of economic potential, restrict the possibilities for a rapid recovery of the economy and simultaneously complicate the task of bringing inflation closer to the target.

The primary risk in the forecast regarding the potential return of the economy to normal functioning conditions over the forecast horizon is linked to the duration and nature of the war. Military risks for Ukraine persist amid global geopolitical tensions, the NBU added.

Recall that in December 2025, the IMF updated its baseline scenario, according to which the war between Russia and Ukraine will conclude by the end of 2025. This scenario anticipates a slowdown in Ukraine's economic growth in 2025 to 2.5-3.5% and an acceleration of growth to 5.3% in 2026.