ISW has analyzed the crash of the Azerbaijani plane in Kazakhstan.
According to the main version of the investigation, the Embraer 190 aircraft of AZAL airline crashed near the city of Aktau due to a missile strike from an air defense system. Additionally, the aircraft experienced communication disruptions caused by electronic warfare operations in Grozny.
This information was reported by RBK-Ukraine, referencing the report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The report cited sources from the Reuters agency. They stated that preliminary investigation results indicate that the Russian air defense system "Pantsir-S" hit the aircraft after electronic warfare (EW) caused communication failures onboard during its approach to Grozny.
An American official informed Reuters that there are early signs suggesting the aircraft may have been shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft system. According to The Wall Street Journal, aviation experts believe that video footage of the wreckage indicates the aircraft was downed by a Russian air defense system.
The ISW noted that Kazakh officials have neither confirmed nor denied these preliminary investigation reports, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also declined to comment on the crash until the final investigation results are available.
Russia's Version of Bird Strike
A representative of the Federal Air Transport Agency ("Rosaviatsiya"), Artem Korenyako, stated that the aircraft crashed at 09:30 Moscow time after the pilot decided to land at Aktau Airport. He attributed the crash to a "bird strike."
Russian sources also initially made conflicting statements about the aircraft being redirected to Mineralnye Vody Airport in the Stavropol Krai (approximately 270 kilometers northwest of Grozny) and Makhachkala Airport (about 180 kilometers southeast of Grozny) due to the risk of drone strikes or foggy weather in Grozny.
An insider source linked to Russian law enforcement claimed that an air defense missile likely struck the aircraft at an altitude of 2400 meters approximately 18 kilometers northwest of Grozny Airport over the Naur district.
"The insider noted that there are several Russian military bases in the Naur district equipped with air defense systems. He stated that the Russian Ministry of Defense recently deployed several 'Pantsir' systems in Chechnya after Ukrainian drones targeted the region," the report from the Institute for the Study of War said.
Possible Pilot Communications with the Dispatcher
Later, an insider source released what is claimed to be a complete transcript of the communications between the aircraft's crew and the dispatcher in Grozny. ISW cannot verify the authenticity of this material.
The purported transcript indicates that the pilot attempted to land the aircraft in Grozny three times between 07:36 and 08:11 Moscow time. The crew reportedly informed the dispatcher multiple times of a complete failure of GPS and communication systems as soon as the aircraft began to descend.
The transcript also suggests that the dispatcher repeatedly lost radar contact with the aircraft. The pilot decided to turn the plane towards Baku around 08:11 before contacting the dispatcher at 08:16 with a distress message about a loss of control due to a collision with a flock of birds.
The insider source does not rule out the possibility that the crew may have mistaken an explosion for a bird strike. The probable transcript indicates that the pilot requested assistance due to the aircraft's loss of control and hydraulic system failure.
From the likely transcript, it appears that the pilot began searching for an alternative airport in Russia for an emergency landing. Specifically, he inquired about the weather at Mineralnye Vody Airport and then requested information about Makhachkala Airport.
The alleged transcript states that the pilot also contacted the dispatchers at Rostov-on-Don Airport (approximately 744 km northwest of Grozny).
According to the publication Eurozone, sources in the Azerbaijani government claimed that Russian authorities did not allow the aircraft to land at any Russian airports. Instead, the aircraft was ordered to fly over the Caspian Sea towards Aktau, despite the pilot's emergency landing request.
Reuters reported that Makhachkala Airport was closed on the morning of December 25, and Russian officials did not explain the reason for the aircraft's crossing over the Caspian Sea.
Embraer Aircraft Crash in Kazakhstan
On December 25, a passenger Embraer 190 aircraft of the Azerbaijani airline AZAL crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau. There were 67 people on board, 38 of whom died.
Initially, the main theory of the incident was a collision with birds. However, later eyewitnesses demonstrated shrapnel traces from an anti-aircraft missile.
The Azerbaijani government confirmed that the crash was triggered by a missile launched by Russia.
For more on what may have caused the aircraft's demise and Russia's attempts to reject the unfavorable version, read our exclusive piece.