Gas station prices may decline: which fuels will become cheaper and what factors will influence costs.

Starting from January 2025, fuel prices at Ukrainian gas stations have increased due to rising excise taxes and the cost of oil on global markets. However, due to certain factors, fuel prices at gas stations may experience a slight decrease before spring.

For details on the current prices at Ukrainian gas stations and what to expect in the near future, read the overview by journalist RBK-Ukraine Alik Sakhno.

What is the situation with fuel prices in February

In January, the price increase at gas stations occurred partly due to new excise taxes. Specifically, the excise on liquefied gas rose by 1.3 hryvnias per liter, on gasoline - by 1.5 hryvnias, and on diesel - by a significant 2 hryvnias. However, these are not the only factors, as oil prices have also surged.

"At the beginning of January, the price of oil increased by almost 10% – from $75 to $82 per barrel. This, in turn, led to a rise in fuel prices, which increased by approximately 2.5-3 hryvnias. The increase in fuel costs was primarily a result of rising excise taxes, although the price of diesel fuel may have risen somewhat more. Changes in oil prices were less noticeable," – explained Sergey Kuyun, director of "Consulting Group A-95," in a comment to RBK-Ukraine.

According to him, February has seen a certain cooling in the oil market. The price of oil has not returned to previous levels and currently fluctuates between $76-78 per barrel of Brent. Consequently, fuel prices have slightly decreased.

The expert adds that the price difference remains stable for now, but we are currently witnessing the peak of the "dead season" – fuel consumption is minimal, and there are substantial reserves. Therefore, there is a high likelihood that prices may drop a bit more in the near future.

"I am confident that there is potential for a decrease in prices by one hryvnia. The main factor is low demand. Sales are practically non-existent at the moment, so they need to be stimulated, and the best way to do this is by lowering prices. Therefore, it is likely that prices for all types of fuel, such as A-98, A-95, A-92, and diesel, may decrease. However, the situation with gas is different. In my opinion, gas does not have significant potential for decline since its price is already stable. But petroleum products – gasoline and diesel – could indeed become cheaper," – notes Kuyun.

When will prices start to fall

The expert clarifies that a decrease in prices at Ukrainian gas stations could happen before the start of this spring. He points out that gas stations are currently maintaining high prices because they have not fully increased to the level dictated by the rise in excise taxes and oil prices.

"Gasoline and diesel prices should have increased by 4 hryvnias, but in reality, they have only risen by 3 or even 2.50. This means that prices have not fully reflected the anticipated increase. The reason is low demand. No one wanted to sharply raise prices due to the lack of demand. As a result, they attempted to keep prices at a level to avoid losing even more sales. Consequently, they did not achieve the desired revenue," – he explains.

Regarding the decrease in demand, Sergey Kuyun explains that this is a seasonal phenomenon that usually continues even into March, which, according to him, has become another winter month for Ukrainian motorists in recent years. When consumption increases, this may influence prices, which will respond more quickly to changes.

"Currently, with a large fuel reserve, there is no opportunity for prices to change rapidly; they remain inert. However, when consumption rises, products turnover quickly, and prices respond more swiftly to decreases. In other words, changes could have already occurred if it were an active season now. But at the moment, we do not see this," – he asserts.

At the same time, the director of "Consulting Group A-95" adds that the cost of fuel in Ukraine may still be influenced by the situation in global markets. In particular, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he will work to lower oil prices. He has already reached out to OPEC countries and wants to stimulate oil production in America. According to Kuyun, an increase in raw material production could lead to a price drop of more than $5 for oil.

What are the current prices at gas stations

As of February 20, Ukrainian gas stations have raised the average price of A-95 gasoline by 1 kopeck, bringing it to 56.90 hryvnias per liter. However, the price at the level of 56.87-56.90 hryvnias per liter has remained stable since February 6, following an increase of 6 kopecks.

According to "Consulting Group A-95," the average retail prices at Ukrainian gas stations as of February 20 are:

• A-95 premium gasoline: 60.19 hryvnias per liter;

• A-95 gasoline: 56.90 hryvnias per liter;

• A-92 gasoline: 54.06 hryvnias per liter;

• diesel fuel: 55.29 hryvnias per liter;

• gas: 37.05 hryvnias per liter.

The prices of petroleum products at different gas stations can vary within 7-10 hryvnias. For example, the gas station "Avantage 7" sells a liter of A-95 gasoline for an average of 52.95 hryvnias, while at the gas stations of the "SOCAR," "OKKO," and "WOG" chains, the same liter costs 59.99 hryvnias.

We remind you that retail prices for gasoline and diesel in Ukraine decreased in November 2024. Read our previous article to find out why this happened and what the prices were at domestic gas stations.

The preparation of this material included comments for RBK-Ukraine from Sergey Kuyun, director of the consulting company A-95, as well as data from the "Consulting Group A-95" website.