The agreement of Transnistria to accept EU assistance will diminish Russia's influence in the region, according to ISW.

The agreement by the authorities of the unrecognized Transnistria to receive assistance from Moldova, Ukraine, or the EU will weaken Russia's position in the region. Specifically, this will prevent Moscow from using the crisis to increase Transnistria's dependence on the Kremlin.

This information was reported by RBK-Ukraine citing a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report reminded that on January 27, the European Union proposed a package of assistance to Moldova and the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (PMR) to overcome the gas crisis as part of efforts to reduce Russia's ability to use Transnistria in its energy blackmail schemes against Chișinău.

The package includes an immediate loan of three million cubic meters of gas for Transnistria and a grant of 30 million euros (approximately 31.4 million USD) for Moldova to purchase gas. According to the agreement, fuel will be purchased from the European market from February 1 to February 10 to support electricity generation in Transnistria for domestic consumption and export to the rest of Moldova.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean noted that the EU will continue to support Chișinău even after February 10, so that Transnistria can continue to produce electricity for its own needs and for Moldova.

The EU assistance package aims to invest in electricity production and distribution in Transnistria over the next two years. In Brussels, it was stated that the package also considers the possibility of supporting coal supplies from Ukraine to the unrecognized Republic, and that the EU supported allocating capacities for transporting gas from Bulgaria and Romania to Moldova.

On Monday, the Operational Headquarters for Energy Issues in Transnistria announced that gas reserves in Transnistria are running low and will last "at most until the beginning of February 2025."

Sources from the Russian publication "Kommersant" claim that the Moldovan gas company "Moldovagaz" is negotiating with the Hungarian oil and gas company MOL and the Hungarian energy company MVM to purchase gas for Transnistria. Fuel supplies are expected to begin in early February 2025 and continue until the end of March or early April 2025.

On January 27, Recean confirmed that MOL had presented "Moldovagaz" with a draft contract for gas supplies to Transnistria, but the Moldovan authorities must verify the legality and compliance of the contract with national and international law.

According to ISW, the likely acceptance of assistance from Moldova, Ukraine, or the EU by Transnistria and subsequent supplies of cheaper electricity from the unrecognized republic to the rest of Moldova will not be in Russia's favor.

"Such a decision will undermine Russia's intentions to use the energy crisis to strengthen Transnistria's economic dependence on Moscow, position Russia as the savior and benefactor of the self-proclaimed republic, and exploit Chișinău's transition to more expensive European electricity within the framework of Moscow's anti-European narratives," the Institute for the Study of War states.

Energy Crisis in Transnistria

Ukraine has decided not to extend the contract for the transit of Russian gas to Moldova and European countries starting January 1, 2025.

This has led to the absence of heating and hot water in Transnistria, as well as disruptions in energy supply.

Moldova has warned that the energy system of Transnistria may fail.

Russia may soon deliver gas to Transnistria as "humanitarian aid."

The authorities of the unrecognized republic previously rejected Moldovan and Ukrainian proposals for assistance.

For more details on what awaits Transnistria after the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, read our exclusive article.