According to ISW, Russians are likely planning to impose a blockade on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Russian forces are likely aiming to cut off Ukrainian ground communication lines in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region. This strategy seeks to compel the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to retreat from these cities in the coming months.

This information comes from RBK-Ukraine, citing a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that Russians have recently severed the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka route east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mizheva route southwest of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to encircle Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Both routes, T-0405 and T-0406, are among the three primary ground supply lines for the Ukrainian military grouping in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area.

Consequently, the ISW believes that the Russian offensive to the east and west of Pokrovsk may complicate Ukrainian logistics and the ability of Ukraine to replenish supplies and redeploy troops to defend the settlements of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Experts warn that the Russian military command may intend to launch further offensives north of the T-0405 and T-0406 routes, ultimately forcing the AFU to retreat northward (rather than east or west) to support the encirclement of both settlements and further advance westward towards the administrative border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Additionally, the Russian military command is likely hoping to avoid conducting frontal assaults on the urban areas of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad with infantry.

As a result, the blockade of these cities increases the likelihood of a retreat by the Ukrainian army, while Russian forces could capture these settlements without engaging in heavy urban combat.

Russians Avoid Urban Combat in Donetsk Region

Recently, the Financial Times reported that the Russians have changed their strategy. The enemy has started to bypass heavy urban combat in the Donetsk region and is heading towards Dnipropetrovsk.

Thus, Russians advancing from the south have begun to move west of Pokrovsk, being only 7 km away from the route leading to Dnipropetrovsk. A representative from the GUR stated in a comment to FT that the tactics of the Russian Federation aim to force the AFU to abandon Pokrovsk themselves.