Wednesday05 February 2025
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Russia rejects revising the terms for negotiations with Ukraine, according to ISW.

Russia continues to insist that negotiations with Ukraine should be based solely on the demands presented by Moscow during the talks in Istanbul in 2022. The aggressor refuses to consider any compromises, despite the significant territorial gains achieved by Ukrainian forces.
РФ отказывается пересматривать условия переговоров с Украиной, сообщает ISW.

Russia continues to insist that negotiations with Ukraine should be based solely on the demands put forward by Moscow during the talks in Istanbul in 2022. The aggressor refuses to make any compromises, despite the significant liberation of territories by Ukrainian forces.

This is reported by RBK-Ukraine citing a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Specifically, analysts note that a senior Russian official reiterated the conditions set by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. This refers to the Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, Valentina Matviyenko.

On Tuesday, December 24, she stated that Russia is open to compromises in negotiations with Ukraine but will strictly adhere to the conditions outlined during the talks in Istanbul in March 2022. Matviyenko added that the Russian Federation will not deviate from these conditions "by even a jot."

The conditions put forth in Istanbul were as follows:

  • Ukraine will be a permanently neutral state and will not be able to join NATO;
  • The Ukrainian army will face restrictions similar to those imposed by the Treaty of Versailles on Germany after World War I. The armed forces of Ukraine will be limited to 85,000 soldiers.

The demands made by Russia in Istanbul mainly represented more detailed versions of the requirements that Putin had put forward months before the large-scale invasion in 2022, including "demilitarization" and neutrality for Ukraine.

Analysts emphasized that Matviyenko is reiterating Putin's demand, which he expressed during the "Direct Line" on December 19. Other senior officials are likely to make similar statements in the coming weeks for both domestic and foreign audiences.

The ISW continues to believe that the heightened rhetoric from Russian officials stating Putin's conditions reflects the Russian dictator's confidence that he can achieve military victory over Ukraine. This is occurring despite the enormous losses that Ukraine has inflicted on Russian forces.

It is worth noting that the majority of Ukrainians (73%) believe that Russia must meet certain conditions for Ukraine to agree to commence peace negotiations.

Among the conditions that respondents believe Russia should fulfill to initiate peace talks are:

  • the cessation of shelling of Ukrainian territories that are not currently occupied and where active combat is not taking place (54%),
  • the withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders (46.5%).