What will the dollar exchange rate be? Forecast for the end of the week.

The official exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia dropped last week to 42.92 hryvnias, marking the lowest level since late December. This week, the NBU may keep the rate close to 42 hryvnias.

This information is reported by RBK-Ukraina referencing the weekly review of the investment company ICU.

According to the review, the NBU's interventions in the interbank market decreased last week by 25% to 756 million dollars, the lowest volume since the beginning of December last year.

The cash dollar price in systemically important banks fell by 0.8% to 41.7-42.3 UAH/dollar by the end of the week, returning to pre-New Year levels.

"The National Bank has significantly reduced its interventions, yet they remain substantial and well above last year's average weekly figure (665 million dollars)," the review states.
Analysts at ICU predict that this week the NBU may receive additional support from exporters who will need more hryvnia liquidity for tax payments. As a result, the central bank may continue to reduce interventions, preventing significant fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate.

"Currently, the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate indicate that the NBU will aim to maintain it close to 42 UAH/dollar this week," the review notes.

Recall that the NBU raised the dollar exchange rate to the hryvnia again on January 28. The dollar appreciated after three days of decline. The official exchange rate for January 28, 2025, is set at 41.9479 hryvnias per 1 dollar (+0.0226 UAH).