Wednesday12 February 2025
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What will the dollar exchange rate be? A banker has shared predictions for early February.

Following a tumultuous start to the year, the currency market has gradually transitioned into a phase of relative calm. At the same time, the market is expected to remain quite active, and the National Bank's strategy to balance supply and demand will continue to be in effect.
Прогноз курса доллара: банкир поделился ожиданиями на начало февраля.

After a tumultuous start to the year, the situation on the currency market has gradually entered a period of relative calm. At the same time, the market will remain quite active, and the NBU's strategy for balancing supply and demand will continue to be in effect.

This was stated in a comment to RBK-Ukraine by Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank.

"Thanks to currency interventions, it will be possible to satisfy demand and significantly narrow the opportunities for exchange rate maneuvers," he said.

Additionally, according to him, the following key factors will influence the currency market from February 3 to February 9:

  • The NBU's strategy for curbing inflation (the increase in the discount rate that occurred in December and January should strengthen the hryvnia, stabilize prices, and indirectly reduce demand for currency).
  • The international financial aid received and the existing international currency reserves, which allow the regulator to feel more at ease in the currency market and act according to current circumstances.
  • The military factor remains important for shaping demand, and thus for exchange rate dynamics: from the situation at the front to possible negotiations for a ceasefire.

"It is important to note that the implementation of the 'managed flexibility' regime is the most significant aspect for understanding the future situation in the market. Thanks to this strategy, it is possible to avoid sharp exchange rate changes; the interbank market remains dominant (banks and exchange points base their rates on interbank rates, forming their own rates), and current exchange rate fluctuations are relatively minimal," Lesovoy emphasized.

Exchange Rate Forecast

As the banker noted, the main characteristics of the currency market for the upcoming week will be as follows:

  • The allowable currency fluctuation corridors will be 42-42.3 UAH/USD and 43.5-45 UAH/EUR (in the interbank market) and 42.4-42.8 UAH/USD and 45-47.5 UAH/EUR (in the cash market).
  • Depending on the currency, the average difference between interbank and cash market rates will be 0.3-0.5 UAH.
  • The average weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 1-1.5% of the starting rate for the week.

"Thus, from February 3 to February 9, one should not expect any surprises from the currency market: exchange rate changes will remain quite predictable. As was the case a week ago, the main currency fluctuations will occur within the range of 42-42.3 UAH/USD," Lesovoy concluded.