Artificial collapse: What lies ahead for Transnistria after the halt of gas transit through Ukraine?
The halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine poses a threat of an energy collapse for the Transnistrian region of Moldova. It is quite likely that by January 1, 2025, heating, hot water, gas, and electricity supplies will be cut off there.
For more details on this and why the Ukrainian side is not being blamed in the current situation, see the article from RBK-Ukraine.
Will Transnistria be left without gas? What is known
Last week, the gas monopoly "Gazprom" announced the cessation of gas supplies to Moldova starting at 07:00 (Kyiv time) on January 1, 2025. The official reason is "regular non-fulfillment of payment obligations" under the current contract and accumulated debts.
At the same time, "Gazprom" did not mention Ukraine, which will also completely stop transit at that time. Transnistria will be the region that suffers the most from this decision - a separatist enclave within Moldova (with the presence of Russian troops), whose economy has relied on "free" gas supplied through the Ukrainian gas transmission system for several decades.
For Russia, gas remains the main, and since the invasion of Ukraine, almost the only tool for influencing both Chișinău and Tiraspol. However, it now seems that Moscow is losing interest in the region.
The impending gas problem has been known for a long time. Back in January 2024, Kyiv warned that it did not intend to extend the transit agreement. Since then, Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria have been searching for alternative routes and discussing the possibility of maintaining transit. Moldova was not involved in these negotiations but assured that the situation was under control.
Moldova has indeed freed itself from the "Gazprom" monopoly. In 2022, the Kremlin reduced supplies by a third, citing issues related to the war against Ukraine. Facing the brink of an energy crisis, Chișinău made an unconventional decision: all Russian gas was directed to the left bank of the Dniester, while it began purchasing fuel on the European market for itself.
The loss of Ukrainian transit has seriously concerned the Moldovan authorities, which declared a state of emergency in mid-December. The reason is that a large portion of the Russian gas is supplied to the Moldovan GRES on the left bank. The electricity produced there is purchased by the right bank, and it is about twice cheaper than on the exchange in neighboring Romania. This station accounts for up to 90% of the electricity purchased by Chișinău, and there are no other sources of cheap energy.
Photo: The Moldovan GRES, which supplies electricity to both banks of the Dniester, may be left without Russian gas (moldgres.com)
"Gazprom" is reportedly ready to supply gas bypassing Ukraine, but this issue is tied to the payment of "historical debt." According to estimates, the debt amounts to 709 million dollars; however, Moldova recognizes only a debt of 8.6 million, citing the conclusions of an international audit. Naturally, the Russian side does not accept these results.
Read more in the article "Under Gazprom's Control: Moldova Again on the Brink of an Energy Crisis and Needs Ukraine's Help."
In response to the decision to halt supplies, the Moldovan authorities point to the humanitarian aspect: about 300 thousand Moldovan citizens reside in Transnistria, and Chișinău feels obligated to provide them with energy resources.
"This decision once again confirms the Kremlin's intention to leave the residents of the Transnistrian region without light and heat in the middle of winter. Russia uses energy as a political weapon, turning the population of the region, which it controls through its illegally stationed army, into hostages," said Prime Minister Dorin Recean.
Recently, the Secretary of State of the Ministry of Energy, Konstantin Borosan, stated that Tiraspol was advised to prepare, study the European gas market, and given several recommendations on purchasing on the exchange. However, acting in this regard should have been done earlier, as it seems that Transnistria will face an energy collapse in the early days of 2025.
Without gas, heat, and light. What awaits Transnistria
The so-called "authorities" of Transnistria did not initially recognize the threat of an energy crisis and only reacted after Chișinău raised the alarm. As a result, Tiraspol also declared a state of emergency: gas is not only a source of light and heat there but also the foundation of the economy. It is gas that generates income from electricity sales to the right bank of the Dniester, supports almost a hundred enterprises, and maintains legitimacy through low tariffs for the population.
It seems that Chișinău was confident until the last moment that Moscow would not risk its already undermined positions in the region and would find a way to maintain supplies without transit through Ukraine. Especially since even if transit stops, Russia could redirect gas to Transnistria via the Trans-Balkan pipeline or the "Turkish Stream." However, "Gazprom" did not reserve capacities at the Moldova-Romania border for January.
A week before the transit halt, the energy blocks of the Moldovan GRES began switching from gas to coal. Estimates suggest that the current reserves should last for 50 days under strict conservation measures. This means that enterprises will switch to nighttime operation, organize night transportation for workers, and reduce working hours in administrative institutions.
In the region, planned medical check-ups in hospitals have already been suspended. There are only 2355 beds available for patients, including 355 for tuberculosis and mental health patients. Emergency calls will be serviced by 54 ambulances, which will transport patients to hospitals with heating.
Schools are preparing to transition to remote learning. Residents who can use firewood for heating have been allowed to manually collect fallen timber. To use machinery for cutting trees, permission must be obtained from the local administration. Information on where and how to purchase firewood is being published on Transnistrian websites and social media.
What awaits the residents of Transnistria on January 1? As stated by the general director of "Tirasteploenergo," Oleg Ishchenko, in the event of gas supply cessation, hot water and heating will be turned off, and warmth will only be available in hospitals, and that will be due to combined burners using alternative fuel.
According to him, heating will be turned off at 07:00, after which the networks will cool down in 12 hours, and residents will feel the drop in temperature in their apartments after a day. Water will be drained from the hot water supply system, but circulation will be maintained to prevent pipes from freezing.
"As for the heating networks, we will maintain pressure. That is, there will be circulation. Even at sub-zero temperatures, our equipment will operate at full capacity. So, without a heat carrier, but with circulation," Ishchenko explained.
Additionally, starting January 1, gas supplies to household consumers will be cut off. In apartment buildings, gas will only be available for cooking. And that will be until the reserves in the gas pipeline system are depleted and the pressure drops to a critical level. Heating plants providing heat will be disconnected from gas, as well as private homes in cities, villages, and settlements, as well as apartment buildings with autonomous heating, as stated by "Tiraspoltransgaz."
Photo: Residents of Transnistria face the threat of losing hot water, heating, and gas starting January 1, 2025 (t.me/novostipmrcom)
Moreover, Transnistrians are warned about other problems in case of insufficient electricity generation. First of all, during power outages, mobile network coverage will be reduced, internet access will be limited, and most subscribers will be unable to receive television signals.
It should be noted that over the weekend, "Tiraspoltransgaz" already disconnected 12 state institutions of Moldova in the security zone in the Dubăsari district, Bender, and its surroundings from gas. They also warned about disconnections for legal entities and entrepreneurs.
Local media report a rush for gas cylinders, including among residents of apartment buildings. Relevant services urge Transnistrians to use them with particular caution.
According to Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the "Razumkov Center," if Transnistria experiences an energy collapse, it will be organized artificially.
"What we see is, on one hand, a Russian provocation, and on the other, the Moldovan government's shortcomings. If Russia truly cares for its Transnistria, it could have organized an alternative gas route. But both Chișinău and Tiraspol were not sufficiently prepared, even though Ukraine had