An expert predicts that the liquid assets of Russia's National Wealth Fund will be depleted by the end of this year.

Since the onset of the full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia has utilized a significant portion of the National Wealth Fund, which was accumulated from oil and gas revenues between 2010 and 2022. This year, those funds are expected to be depleted.

This information is detailed in an article by RBK-Ukraine"How Much Putin Is Paying for the War and How the West Is Intensifying Pressure on the Russian Economy".

According to the article, the Russian budget for 2025 is projected to have a deficit of 1.2 trillion rubles. This figure is not new for Russia, as the deficit exceeded 3 trillion rubles annually from 2022 to 2024. To meet its expenditure and cover the budget deficit, the aggressor country relies on the National Wealth Fund, tax revenues, and the printing of rubles.

As reported by the Russian Ministry of Finance, the liquid portion of this fund (which can be converted into real money) amounted to 53.8 billion dollars as of December 1, 2024, down from approximately 150 billion dollars at the start of the war.

"This fund contains many assets that cannot be sold or converted into cash. In particular, the illiquid part includes the 'Yanukovych Eurobonds' (Eurobonds of the Ukrainian government that Russia purchased in 2013 - ed.). These three billion dollars that Ukraine supposedly owes are worthless pieces of paper, and there is much more like that," stated Sergey Fursa, Deputy Director for Securities Trading at the investment company Dragon Capital, in an interview with RBK-Ukraine.

According to him, therefore, attention is usually focused on the liquid portion - which consists of gold and yuan.

"At the current rate of expenditure, it will last only until the end of 2025, or perhaps even sooner," Fursa commented.

In 2025, the Russian government significantly increased several taxes, for example, the corporate tax rose from 20% to 25%. Amid rising key interest rates, deposit interest rates also increased, encouraging the population to deposit trillions of rubles in banks.

According to the Russian Deposit Insurance Agency, as of September 2024, the total volume of insured deposits from individuals and legal entities amounts to 70 trillion rubles. Part of these funds is invested in loans, while the other part constitutes free liquidity in the banking system.

"This free liquidity may be directed towards Russian Ministry of Finance bonds. By the end of 2024, they had already implemented an emission mechanism: banks borrowed from the central bank, using these loans to purchase government securities, thus financing the government," Fursa added.

Recall that on January 10, the USA announced new extensive sanctions against the Russian energy sector. Experts estimate that these sanctions will lead to a decline in the economy of the aggressor country as early as this year.