Is there a threat to Konstantinovka if Russia succeeds near Toretsk? Insights from ISW on the situation.

Russian forces are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Konstantinovka in the Donetsk region. This threat will not materialize unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing troop presence in the area with forces from other frontline regions.

This information comes from RBK-Ukraine, citing a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report notes that, according to geolocation images released on January 6, Russian troops have advanced along Tsvetochnaya Street and reached the northwestern administrative border of the town of Toretsk.

Based on the geolocation maps analyzed by ISW, as of January 7, Russian forces occupy about 71% of the territory of the settlement.

ISW suggests that Russian troops likely intend to use their successes in the northwest of Toretsk to advance westward from Toretsk and Shcherbinovka along the T0516 Toretsk-Konstantinovka highway towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Konstantinovka.

Specifically, analysts believe that Russians may advance along the T0516 highway towards Konstantinovka through Nelipovka, Plescheevka, Ivanopolye, and the fields surrounding these settlements.

Thus, they are attempting to create a threat to the southern edge of the Ukrainian fortification belt stretching from Konstantinovka to Druzhkovka to Kramatorsk, which forms the backbone of the defense in the Donetsk region.

Risk for Konstantinovka

Furthermore, the Institute for the Study of War believes that Russians may attempt to exploit further advances to the northwest of Toretsk and south of Chasiv Yar towards Belyi Gora and Aleksandro-Shultino to disrupt Ukrainian positions in the area and align the front line to the west and southwest of Konstantinovka.

"Such advancement would complicate Ukraine's ability to counterattack in the immediate rear of Russia to the southeast of Chasiv Yar, particularly towards Kleshcheevka. It would also allow Russian troops to deploy additional artillery systems within range of Konstantinovka and utilize FPV drones within reach of the city," the ISW report states.

Moreover, analysts do not rule out that Russian forces might attempt to leverage tactical advantages in Toretsk and nearby areas, as well as to the east of Pokrovsk, to eliminate Ukrainian fortifications to the southwest of Toretsk between Vozdvizhanka (to the east of Pokrovsk) and Toretsk.

ISW also does not exclude the possibility that Russians may seek to break out from the urban encirclement of Toretsk and advance into more open rural areas, similar to those where the Russian army has made significant gains in other sections of the front in recent months.

"Russian forces are unlikely to represent a significant threat to Konstantinovka unless the Russian military command strengthens the existing troop grouping in this area with forces from other front sections," the Institute is convinced.

Meanwhile, ISW does not rule out that the Russian command may decide to continue offensive operations in the Toretsk direction using the 51st Army Corps, currently deployed in the area. This is likely to lead to slow, gradual advances, as these limited forces are probably exhausted after six months of urban combat.

Priority - Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo

The Institute for the Study of War is also convinced that the Russian military command has recently prioritized offensive operations in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo directions. It is unlikely to redeploy forces from these areas to the Toretsk direction until Russian troops achieve their objectives in these directions.

"The priority objective of Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction remains unclear, as Russian forces appear to be advancing east and southwest of Pokrovsk with the aim of encircling the city, as well as moving west from the area south of Pokrovsk towards the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions," analysts believe.

The report reminds that in the Kurakhovo direction, Russian troops are currently focused on eliminating Ukrainian positions along the Sukhie Yaly River. However, in the future, they may also prefer further advances westward towards the regional border.

ISW does not exclude that the Russian military command may continue to prioritize the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo directions while reducing the priority of offensive operations in other front sections, such as the Kupiansk or Borovsk directions, to redeploy forces to the Toretsk direction.

Currently, ISW is not prepared to provide a forecast regarding how the Russians will allocate their efforts near Toretsk.

"The Russian military command may prefer to maintain this continuous pressure on the Armed Forces of Ukraine across the front rather than redeploy forces to the Toretsk direction. Although Russian offensive operations towards Konstantinovka from the Toretsk area may provide Russian troops with the opportunity to achieve the most operationally significant advances along the front line," the report from the Institute for the Study of War states.

Situation on the Front

Throughout the day on January 7, there were 159 combat engagements along the front. The enemy is attacking primarily in two directions.

Additionally, the Russian invaders have significantly intensified shelling of Suja and surrounding villages in the Kursk region.

Meanwhile, the invaders are attempting to use residents of the Pokrovsk district as "human shields."