An expert assessed whether the Russian army can effectively strengthen itself by recruiting prisoners and debtors.

Prisoners of war are not typically viewed as regular forces capable of conducting combined arms operations. They serve as frontline soldiers, tasked with calling in fire, transporting ammunition, and providing cover for the trained Russian troops.

This was stated by Ivan Timochko, head of the Reserve Council of the Ground Forces, in a comment to the YouTube channel RBK-Ukraine.

"In 2023-2024, the Russians were mobilizing around 35-40 thousand contract soldiers each month. If we multiply that by 12 months, we have 400-500 thousand. Even if we add these figures together, we see that it totals about the same," Timochko said.

However, he noted that Russian losses have significantly increased throughout 2024. Currently, their maximum capability is to "minimize their losses."

"If, hypothetically, they lose up to 40 thousand each month but can mobilize 35 thousand, then from our perspective, a figure of 5 thousand seems insignificant along the front line. However, this impacts their potential growth," the expert believes.

According to him, if the occupiers attempt to reach the level of a peak month in 2024, it means they would need to draft 45-50 thousand each month just to balance out their losses and increase by at least 5-6 thousand.

"They had hopes in the Kursk region that during the training of North Korean soldiers they would also utilize or bolster a strong North Korean resource, but we see that this hasn't happened either. The turning point that the Russians were counting on did not occur," Timochko reminded.

He pointed out that given the current maximum number of Russian troops they have deployed, along with their available forces, means, and resources, the occupiers are achieving tactical successes but are suffering strategic losses.

For them to achieve operational successes, they need to enhance both their human and military potential. Their mobilization capacity is also insufficient.

"If we talk about prisoners, I recall that last year the Russian penitentiary system reduced production by 10 to 30%, particularly in logging and other sectors. Considering that free labor from prisoners typically worked for the defense sector, a sharp decrease in prisoners in jails leads to a reduction in certain state orders," the expert added.

On the other hand, as Timochko noted, prisoners of war are not currently viewed as regular forces capable of conducting combined arms operations.

"They are frontline soldiers, tasked with calling in fire, acting as so-called 'camels'—transporting ammunition on their backs—and providing cover for genuinely trained Russian troops," emphasized the military expert.

Russia plans to mobilize "special contingent" in 2025

According to GUR, to replenish its losses in 2025, Russia plans to mobilize at least 126 thousand soldiers from the so-called "special contingent" for the war. This refers to Russians who are serving sentences in prisons, are under investigation, have outstanding loan debts, or face other issues.

On average, to cover its losses, the terrorist state plans to mobilize about 10 thousand individuals from the "special contingent" each month.

"Overall, to replace the losses of existing military units and formations in the war against Ukraine, the aggressor state Russia intends to mobilize a minimum of 280 thousand occupiers in 2025," adds Ukrainian intelligence.