What to expect from the dollar's exchange rate: a banker’s forecast for the upcoming week.

The beginning of the year is not expected to significantly impact the currency market in Ukraine. Exchange rate fluctuations will be predictable.

This was stated by Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, in a comment to RBK-Ukraine.

According to him, the decision to change the NBU's discount rate from 13% to 13.5% is aimed at slightly strengthening the hryvnia and effectively easing the demand in the interbank market.

"In other words, the pressure from increased demand observed in the second half of December may ease somewhat," Lesovoy added.

The banker noted that exchange rate changes will remain controlled and predictable.

"We anticipate that by the end of January, the official dollar exchange rate may rise by about 0.5-1%, but there is a chance that the rate will fluctuate within the range of 42-42.3 hryvnias. Thus, exchange rate changes will be as acceptable as possible," the banker stated, reminding that the budget for 2025 includes an average exchange rate of 45 UAH/USD.

Lesovoy mentioned that in January, the activity of citizens in the cash market usually decreases significantly due to reduced budget expenditures. This purely seasonal factor may positively influence the exchange rate dynamics.

"Therefore, despite pressure from all sides, the situation in the currency market will remain satisfactory. The increase in the discount rate in December may moderately strengthen the hryvnia," he said.

It is worth noting that the dollar exchange rate increased by 10.7% in 2024, reaching a maximum of 42.03 UAH/USD. Last week, the rate continued to rise and set a new record of 42.08 UAH/USD on December 6.