"It could happen again in Ukraine": Bacho Korchilava discusses Georgia post-elections, the opposition's sole path, and the West's strategy.

This week, the attention of the international community and Ukraine is focused on what is happening in Georgia following the scandalous parliamentary elections there. For Kyiv, the Georgian situation is particularly interesting given the recent results of elections and referendums in neighboring Moldova, where the course toward the EU has become somewhat uncertain and Russian influence has intensified.

"Telegraph" asked Bacho Korchilava (former press secretary of the Georgian embassy in Ukraine, journalist, and analyst) what is really happening in Sakartvelo, whether there has been a certain rollback of democracy in the country, what role Russia plays in these events, and what strategy Ukraine should adopt in response to the developments in Georgia.

— Why has the Georgian opposition failed to unite?

— That question is really for the Georgian opposition as to why they couldn't do it. On one hand, I understand that they could not run in the elections as a single column because there is a specific problem, especially with the former party of Mikhail Saakashvili (United National Movement). It has a very high anti-rating. If this party hypothetically joined a unified opposition platform and there was a single list, it could essentially alienate voters. Running as two columns — in this case, it would still be possible to find some explanation for the electorate for such a step. But to run as four columns makes it very difficult to explain to voters.

— Why is there no protest potential in Georgian society? We see that there hasn't been a Maidan there so far, and it wasn't planned? Could new leaders, new faces of civil society emerge soon?

— You know, I really admire the work of Lesya Podervyansky. During the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, he had a rather ironic passage, suggesting that it would be necessary to enshrine Maidan in the Constitution, legitimizing it.

This is such a nice [utopian] story. You see, in Georgia, power was not transferred legally for a very long time. There were either military coups, uprisings, or revolutions, and so on.

For the first time, power was transferred through elections from one party to another when it was handed over through the electoral mechanism from the political force of Mikhail Saakashvili to the "Georgian Dream" party — the current de facto ruler of Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Now, however, the opposition argues that if they resort to radical methods, rather than operating within the law, it would fundamentally slow down Georgia's movement towards the EU and provoke confrontation in society. Do they have the right to such a vision? Of course, they do. The opposition itself and its leaders. That’s why they chose to pursue this [legal] approach if it brings them results.

As you can see, Europe and the USA are saying that the facts of falsification must be investigated. But they speak about it very hesitantly. However, if this path yields results for the opposition (the president along with opposition political forces, etc.), and if they achieve results, then they will remain civilized within the legal framework.

And, in principle, after the resumption of the negotiation process with the EU (on Georgia's Euro-integration — Ed.), if all aspects are achieved, it will be easier for them to appeal to this argument. This is how they see it.

— Can we call the current events in Georgia, with the usurpation of power by the "Georgian Dream," a complete rollback from Saakashvili's reforms? Was everything in vain?

— No, we cannot say that. Listen, such a statement is, you know, rather generalized. For instance, let's say after a hypothetical missile strike by the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory, can we assert that all cities in Ukraine are completely destroyed? No, of course not. The same goes here.

This is a very superficial judgment by people who are used to simplifying everything. Look, on most institutional or legislative issues, Europe did not have particular concerns regarding Georgia. The issues were about the independence of the judicial system and the freedom of conducting elections. Can this be called a rollback of reforms? Has the tax administration system or customs management system changed? Has anything changed? No. Another example: the police, which used to not take bribes, still doesn’t take them now.

But there is the problem that the central authority can manage different processes there. Yes, this problem indeed exists.

However, this problem also existed during Saakashvili's time. Was there pressure from the central authority on the courts during Saakashvili's presidency? Yes, there was. But have the current authorities rolled back? Perhaps they have rolled back because the current people in power are trying to sit on three chairs at once. This is a significant problem.

So, you know, one cannot categorically assert that there has been a rollback in Georgia. At the same time, there are Georgian politicians from the ruling party who discuss Ukraine in a manner suggesting that "there is war there, everything is bad." However, we somehow live here together. Russian aggression is bad, but we cannot say that we are in a catastrophic situation.

— What options exist for resolving the situation in Georgia? Is the country on an irreversible path to becoming Belarus? What other options might there be?

— Georgia cannot become Belarus by definition. What does it mean to "not turn into Belarus"? How should it turn into it? Should it declare war on Belarus, surrender, and then become an RB, or what?

— For example, by increasing pressure on the Georgian opposition from central authorities, preventing opposition politicians from participating in elections, and persecuting opposition members?

— Such a scenario is possible. But, you know, today there are certain moments of aggression towards the opposition, a split in society, pressure from administrative resources, etc. However, did you see a similar opposition or mass gathering of opposition members protesting in Belarus?!

On one hand, we are asking why there hasn't been a Maidan there. At the same time, we are asking if Georgia is turning into Belarus? If Georgians do not go out to protest, as Belarusians do not, if the opposition leaves for abroad, sits somewhere in Brussels, Washington, or elsewhere, and from there says: oh, what a bad government we have… Or acts like the Russian opposition. Is this possible? Yes, it is. Are there currently such prerequisites? No, there aren’t.

Here, you see, what’s the issue? Very superficial judgments lead to incorrect conclusions. Conditioned, when you act as a navigator in a car trying to determine the right route, if you don’t have a GPS navigator, a deviation of half a millimeter at the start from the route point will lead to the fact that you will end up in a completely different place.

The same applies here: Georgia is undergoing more complex processes. Is the country insured against such processes? No, it is not. This is a new type of war that Russia is waging against Georgia.

Could a similar scenario repeat in Ukraine? Yes, it could. Ukrainians just don’t like to acknowledge that what is happening to us could also happen to us as it did to others before us.

When I worked at the embassy (Georgia in Ukraine — Ed.) in the mid and late 2000s, I tried to talk with my colleagues, politicians, political scientists, and deputies in Ukraine, saying that next it would be Ukraine. And they replied that Ukraine is not Georgia. Russia will never attack Ukraine. In the end, the Russian Federation did exactly the same with Ukraine as it did with Georgia. First, it occupied and annexed territory, and then it invaded the political life of the country. And who told you that Russians hypothetically wouldn’t be able to pull off the same trick in Ukraine that they are currently performing in Georgia?!

So, when we talk about some comparative matters, like whether Georgia has turned into Belarus? No, it has not turned into it. These are completely different countries, with different people, different mentalities, different approaches, and even different internal familial and clan values.

— Can you clarify how events might develop after the Georgian opposition's statement about nullifying the electoral lists of opposition parties? Will the parliament function fully in case of nullification and boycott, and are new elections possible?

— There is a legal collision here. The opposition is absolutely right in saying that they will resign and nullify the lists. But in order for the people's deputies elected as a result of the elections to resign, they must first attend the first session and acknowledge the full validity of the new parliament. Furthermore, to recognize the resignation of powers, a simple majority of votes in parliament is needed. And who has the majority?