ISW outlined the future offensive plans of Russian forces in the Donetsk region.

Russian forces have seized positions and pushed the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) west of Kurakhovo. The Russian army also plans to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions from the captured city of Velyka Novosilka.

This information was reported by RBK-Ukraine citing a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that Russian troops have captured the village of Ulakly west of Kurakhovo and have closed the "pocket" of the AFU. One of the Russian military bloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced in the central part of Konstantinopol from the south.

Russian troops continued their offensive west of Kurakhovo in the areas of Andriivka, Ulaklov, and Konstantinopol on February 20 and 21, attempting to leverage the capture of Kurakhovo and the village of Dachne to the west of the city to align the front line west of these settlements.

The ISW notes that the main objective of the Russian troops in the Kurakhovo direction was to align the front line and establish more defensible positions west of the city. Institute analysts are convinced that the Russians will not redeploy forces from the Kurakhovo direction until they achieve their goals in this area.

Situation in the Velyka Novosilka Area

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War are also convinced that Russian troops are trying to utilize the capture of Velyka Novosilka to advance further north from the settlement towards the administrative border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

It is reported that Russian forces have recently resumed offensive operations to the northeast, north, and west of Velyka Novosilka after a temporary pause in attacks in these areas for several weeks following the capture of the city at the end of January 2025.

Geolocation footage released on February 20 indicates that Russian troops have captured the village of Novocheretovatoe to the northwest of Velyka Novosilka, following a recent crossing of the Mokri Yaly River. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, elements of the Russian 5th Tank Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) played a crucial role in the river crossing and the capture of the settlement.

The report also notes that Russian troops may have used a dry section of the Mokri Yaly River near Novocheretovatoe to advance towards the settlement, as preliminary assessments by ISW suggest that the river could pose a significant challenge for the Russians.

ISW's preliminary estimates indicate that the Russian military command may have either redeployed a large portion of the Eastern Military District to another section of the front or left units of the district in the direction of Velyka Novosilka to continue advancing towards the administrative border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Furthermore, Russian forces have intensified offensive operations on the northeastern and western flanks of Velyka Novosilka. A Russian military blogger published footage on February 21 allegedly showing units of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting an intensified mechanized attack with platoon forces near Novosilka (west of Velyka Novosilka). Recently, Russian troops also conducted a mechanized attack with battalion forces near the village of Bahatyr (west of Kurakhovo and northeast of Velyka Novosilka).

Another Russian blogger claimed on February 20 that units of the Russian 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army Corps, OMSBr) had recently penetrated deep into Ukrainian defenses north of Vreminky (west of Velyka Novosilka) and captured several strongholds in that area. Russian military bloggers asserted that Russian forces had recently advanced west of Velyka Novosilka, as well as to the east and south of Novosilka, but ISW found no confirmation for these claims.

Another Russian military blogger stated that Russian troops are attacking Skudne (northwest of Novocheretovatoe) and in the direction of Burlatsky and Privolny (northwest and west of Velyka Novosilka). The military blogger noted that the Russian military command is attempting to penetrate weak points along the Ukrainian defense line and advance towards the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Situation on the Front and Russian Shelling

For the day on February 21, there was a decrease in the number of battles in the Pokrovsk direction. Over the day, the Russians lost more than 200 soldiers and a rare flamethrower.

President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Defense Forces are holding key directions on the front.

On the night of February 22, the invaders attacked Ukraine with a large number of "Shahed" drones.

In the Kyiv region, debris from a fallen object caused a fire, resulting in the death of a worker from "Ukrzaliznytsia."