The Demography Institute assessed how many refugees are expected to return home after the war.

The experience of wars in Europe demonstrates that a significant portion of refugees will not return to Ukraine. Approximately half will remain abroad permanently.

This was stated by Alexey Poznyak, a researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Studies, in an interview with RBK-Ukraine.

"One could say that about half may return, while the other half will not," he noted.

According to him, the likelihood of return also depends on how the situation concludes. "If it results in just a freeze without serious guarantees against continuation, that's one scenario. If there are indeed substantial guarantees, and if at least part of the territory occupied by Russia is returned, it will be a different situation," he added.

As Poznyak pointed out, if the promised investments materialize, more people will return. He also mentioned that, unfortunately, there is currently a great deal of uncertainty regarding all factors related to the forced external migration of our citizens.

"What does global experience tell us? The majority of those who returned did so in the first few years after the war ended. This is evidenced by the experiences of the wars in the former Yugoslavia. At the same time, some people from those countries settled in other states and continue to live there to this day," the expert added.

Migration from Ukraine

Recall that, according to UN data, the number of Ukrainian migrants increased by nearly 200,000 during the third quarter, with growth continuing into the beginning of the fourth quarter—reaching almost 6.8 million people as of mid-October 2024.

As noted by the NBU, the ongoing war and significant energy shortages will continue to drive external migration. The NBU expects that 500,000 people will leave Ukraine this year.

The IMF stated that as we approach the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, the humanitarian consequences remain staggering: data indicates that 6.75 million refugees are already outside Ukraine, alongside recent signs of increasing external migration.