Russian security officials appear to be urging Putin to escalate the war against Ukraine, according to ISW.

High-ranking Russian security officials seem to believe that Russia needs to intensify its war against Ukraine rather than seek a resolution through negotiations. They are unwilling to abandon the war due to significant losses.

This is reported by RBK-Ukraine citing the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Before presenting their conclusion, analysts noted new material from the Meduza publication. It stated that Russian security forces and military might acknowledge that Russian troops are not achieving significant territorial gains commensurate with the losses in personnel and equipment they are incurring during combat operations.

It was mentioned that the Russian military command has so far endured excessive personnel losses in exchange for tactical, but not operationally significant, successes. In turn, the theory of victory for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is based on accepting such losses as long as the Russians continue to advance in Ukrainian territory.

However, it is noted that the average daily offensives of the Russian Federation have slowed down to approximately 9 square kilometers in December 2024, after three consecutive months of increased territorial gains and personnel losses in September, October, and November.

In this context, the Russian military command may be less willing than Putin to sustain such high losses if the pace of Russian troop advancement continues to decelerate. At the same time, Russian military personnel and security forces appear unwilling to abandon the war due to these losses. Instead, it is claimed that they are advocating for Putin to intensify Russia's military efforts. In particular, they have called for an additional partial mobilization of reservists and an official decision to transition to a state of war. It is likely that the military is doing this in the hope of filling the battlefield with personnel and equipment.

ISW Conclusion

Analysts continue to believe that Putin is resisting the implementation of a partial conscription of reservists or further mobilization of the Russian economy, as such decisions would be extremely unpopular among Russians and would further exacerbate the labor shortage and the economy of Russia.

At the same time, it remains unclear whether the group of Russian military and security officials advocating for further mobilization of labor and the economy will be able to persuade Putin to take more radical measures to satisfy the Russian troops in the war against Ukraine.

However, the ISW suggests that rising personnel losses, as well as issues with fulfilling voluntary recruitment for the war, may force Putin to conduct a forced partial conscription of reservists in the near future.

Let us remind you that a few days ago, specifically on the morning of January 7, 2025, Russian losses in the war against Ukraine exceeded the mark of 800 thousand soldiers since February 24, 2024, according to data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the enemy continues to lose nearly 2000 soldiers daily.