Following Trump's bold statements, ISW presented facts regarding the war in Ukraine and the support from the West.
Despite Russia's intentions to continue its aggressive campaign and the "creeping" advancement of the occupying army at a great cost, Moscow is unable to capture Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Kyiv has not lost the support of Western countries.
This was reported by analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War, as stated by RBK-Ukraine referencing the publication from ISW regarding the situation in Ukraine.
The experts' material presented several facts about Ukraine, covering both the front-line situation and political information, particularly concerning the negotiation process, as well as data on infrastructure destruction, military casualties, and civilian deaths amid Russia's full-scale military aggression.
The ISW publication also discusses the assistance provided to Ukraine by the U.S. and European countries.
This report from American analysts came after a series of sharp statements by U.S. President Donald Trump directed at his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, which included a number of contradictory remarks regarding Ukraine, the war, U.S. support, and willingness to communicate with Russia, among other topics.
Although ISW does not mention such recent sensational remarks from the White House, the experts' publication with a "fact-check" as of February 21, 2025, essentially provides refutations of his statements.
"Zelensky is not risking losing all of Ukraine at once"
ISW experts note that currently, Russian troops occupy about 20% of Ukraine's territory. At the current pace of advancement, it would take them over 83 years to capture the remaining 80% of the country, analysts say, assuming that the Russian army can "endlessly sustain enormous personnel losses."
Experts also point out that the pace of Russian troop advancement on the front line has significantly slowed over the past three months. Meanwhile, the occupiers achieve "insignificant territorial gains at the cost of large personnel losses."
According to ISW calculations, Russian invaders advanced at an average speed of 27.94 square kilometers per day in November 2024, 18.1 square kilometers per day in December 2024, and 16.1 square kilometers per day in January of this year.
"Most Ukrainian cities are not destroyed"
"Many of Ukraine's largest cities, including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, and Odesa, have avoided destruction and continue to function. Russia has razed some Ukrainian cities to the ground during its attack and occupation, such as Mariupol," the Institute's experts state.
The remaining cities located on 80% of Ukraine's territory, which have not been occupied by Russians, remain "mostly untouched," except for deliberate Russian strikes on critical and civilian infrastructure.
"Ukrainian legislation prohibits holding elections during wartime (unlike the U.S. Constitution, which requires this)"
ISW reminded that the Constitution of Ukraine forbids the government from holding elections or amending the Constitution during a state of martial law, which was implemented after Russia began its illegal large-scale invasion.
Therefore, American experts add, the Ukrainian government cannot constitutionally suspend martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine.
"Ukrainian opposition politicians, including those who have historically run against (President Volodymyr) Zelensky, have stated that conducting elections under martial law would be illegal and immoral," the material notes.
"Ukraine has not suffered million casualties"
According to any credible assessment, Ukraine has not suffered "million" casualties, both civilian and military, ISW experts note.
The analysts reminded that on February 16, Zelensky stated that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 46,000 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers had died in the war, and more than 390,000 servicemen had been wounded.
"American officials estimate the number of Ukrainian military casualties to be between 60,000 and 70,000, but no authoritative source provides estimates close to or in the millions," ISW states.
The UN confirmed that by the end of 2024, Russia had killed more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, the analysts added.
"Europe provides Ukraine direct assistance roughly equal to that of the U.S."
Europe (including EU member states and EU institutions, as well as Norway and the UK) has surpassed the United States in cumulative direct (military and non-military) assistance allocated to Ukraine (not counting the expenditures of U.S. forward forces deployed in Eastern Europe), ISW writes.
Thus, Europe has provided Ukraine with a total assistance amounting to 166 billion dollars and has promised an additional 34.7 billion dollars by 2030.
Overall, European countries have provided and promised to allocate approximately 204.1 billion dollars - over 174 billion dollars from the EU, 13.9 billion dollars from Norway, and 16.2 billion dollars from the UK - compared to 183 billion dollars.
"These figures do not include the EU and G7 commitments to provide loans to Ukraine, funded by revenues from frozen Russian assets.
European loans to Ukraine are backed by revenues from frozen Russian assets, not from Ukraine," the experts emphasize.
Additionally, ISW noted that the EU provides Ukraine with 20 billion dollars in loans, which are secured by extraordinary revenues from immobilized Russian sovereign assets, not from Ukraine.[14]
ISW also points out that the EU holds approximately 220.5 billion dollars in frozen Russian assets.
The EU has already provided Ukraine with 1.6 billion dollars from "frozen" Russian assets and allocated 3.2 billion dollars in loans in January 2025.
"Ukraine has not misused and has not lost half of the aid provided by the United States"
The majority of funds allocated by the United States to Ukraine remain in the U.S. to finance the domestic military-industrial base and replenish American stockpiles, ISW notes.
U.S. government agencies closely monitor the rest of the American aid that is directly provided to Ukraine. On January 11 of last year, the U.S. Department of Defense's Inspector General's Office reported that it found no evidence of illegal use of aid.
"Ukraine repeatedly invited Putin to negotiate in early 2022"
"Zelensky proposed to meet with (Russian dictator Vladimir) Putin on February 19, 2022 - just five days before the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. Putin ignored this request and invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022," the analysts reported.
ISW experts also noted that Zelensky called for direct negotiations with Putin "in any format" in March 2022 and offered to compromise on Ukraine's NATO membership. The Russians demanded complete surrender and demilitarization of Ukraine.
"Zelensky also expressed openness to discussing the status of occupied Ukrainian territories, provided that the Ukrainian people ratify any agreement in a referendum. Putin rejected this proposal as well," the Institute for the Study of War wrote.
Trump's sharp statements regarding Zelensky and the threat to Ukraine
It should be noted that after the Ukrainian side did not sign the proposed U.S. agreement on "rare earths," and following the meeting of delegations from Washington and Moscow in Saudi Arabia for negotiations, U.S. President Donald Trump began using rhetoric closely aligned with Russian propaganda.
He also made critical remarks towards Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and began threatening Ukraine.
For example, on February 19, Trump expressed dissatisfaction that Ukraine is not holding presidential elections during wartime, labeling Zelensky a "dictator without elections."
Moreover, the American president claims that the U.S. supposedly spent 200 billion dollars more on assistance to Ukraine than Europe, and that apparently half of the money provided by the U.S. has "disappeared."
Trump has also repeatedly stated that Ukraine is "devastated, and millions have died."
On February 21, the head of the White House stated that Russia is to blame for the war but also shifted the blame onto Zelensky and former U.S. President Joe Biden. Furthermore, according to Trump, Putin "could have captured all of Ukraine," but allegedly wants to conclude a peace agreement.
Additionally, the U.S. president threatened that Ukraine would face "many problems" if Kyiv does not sign an agreement with Washington granting access to Ukrainian resources.