What will the dollar exchange rate be at the end of February? A banker shares their forecast.

Next week (February 24-28), currency fluctuations are expected to be minimal and varied; however, they are unlikely to deviate from the "corridor." It is anticipated that the official rate will fluctuate between 41.6-42.2 hryvnias.

This was stated in a comment to RBK-Ukraine by Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank.

"The interbank market will continue to play a leading role: the rates of banks and exchange offices will be formed based on non-cash rates, and the difference between interbank rates and the cash market will be very slight - tending towards 0 hryvnias," he said.

In his view, economic factors will have a greater impact on the market, allowing for more accurate predictions of currency fluctuations.

"It is currently challenging to determine how the course of the war, its consequences, or external efforts to find a resolution may affect currency indicators. At the same time, we assume that any external factors, aside from economic ones, could be relevant, although their potential impact on currency indicators remains minimal. The war continues, and political and economic risks remain significant and difficult to predict," Lesovoy stated.

Currency Forecast

The banker noted that the main characteristics of the currency market for next week will be as follows:

• The corridors for permissible currency fluctuations will be 41.6-42.2 UAH/USD and 43.5-45 UAH/EUR (in the interbank market) and 41.6-42.3 UAH/USD and 43.5-45 UAH/EUR (in the cash market).
• The average difference between interbank rates and cash market rates will be 0 hryvnias.
• Average weekly currency deviations will be within 1-1.5% of the starting rate for the week.

"Thus, despite some geopolitical and military uncertainties, the situation in the currency market will be under reliable observation by the regulator, which allows for a period of fluctuating stability," Lesovoy concluded.

As a reminder, last week the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia by 3 kopecks - from 41.62 to 41.59. The rate peaked during the week at 41.73 UAH/USD but fell at the end. The cash rate differed from the official one by 20-30 kopecks.